Sunday, November 02, 2008

Colorado as the Decider?

 has an interesting diagnosis of the electoral map heading into the home stretch. Colorado may be something of a decider in the election.

The website, which accumulates and analyzes polling and political data, does not believe the race is tightening as the McCain campaign contends. However, it is willing to give him the benefit of the doubt.

FiveThirtyEight gives North Carolina, Indiana, North Dakota, Montana, Georgia, and Missouri and even Florida to McCain. It leaves New Mexico, New Hampshire, Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin and Iowa for Obama, which, even in the case of significant tightening, appear safe for the Democrat.

That leaves only five states in play: Pennsylvania, Virginia, Ohio, Nevada and Colorado.

For an Obama victory, he would have achieve only one of the three following scenarios:

1. Win Pennsylvania and ANY ONE of Colorado, Virginia, Ohio, or Nevada*
2. Win Ohio and EITHER Colorado OR Virginia.
3. Win Colorado AND Virginia AND Nevada.

(* A Nevada win results in a 269-269 tie, which would probably be resolved in Obama's favor in the House of Represenatives given the Democratic majority there.)

However, most pollsters now believe that my home state of Colorado is looking increasingly like an Obama lock, especially given massive Democratic early voting there. Then the path to victory becomes even easier. Obama merely needs to win:

1. Pennsylvania
2. Ohio
3. Virginia AND Nevada

Keep in mind Obama still enjoys a double digit lead in Pennsylvania, despite a huge McCain push there in recent weeks. This race might just be over before it really begins.


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