Annual Academy Award Predictions

Author’s Note (posted Oscar morning): You may note a few changes. Momentum for a few of the categories has shifted in the past two weeks since I originally posted and I have made a few revisions. Additionally, I was able to take in some more of the lesser nominated films as well as see all of the nominated shorts (live action, documentary and animated) which has influenced some of my original choices. We’ll know more in just a few hours…

I find there are some years in which I am generally satisfied with the nominations made by the Academy of Motion Pictures, Arts and Sciences. Other years, I think the Academy voters must be composed of a gaggle of lemurs. Then, there are those oh-so-odd years in which the nominations come out and I find myself in nearly utter and complete agreement--from the largest to the smallest category.

This is such a year.

Truthfully, I can't remember a year in which the Academy's nominations were so perfectly tailored to my choices and desires. If I could craft my own perfect nominee list, this just might be it.

And when you throw in The Daily Show's Jon Stewart as the host, you might as well just give me the statuette for Best Satisfied Fan.

Traditionally, the Academy Awards have struck a successful, if uneasy balance between the big-budget extravaganza it does (or used to do) so well and the smaller, quirkier, riskier works that get made with the money the blockbusters bring in.

But not this year.

This year, small is big. Independent labels and films soundly trumped the big Hollywood behemoths and represent a further example of the Hollywood dream machine's growing irrelevance and a sign of things to come as independent, finely crafted, low-budget, guerrilla filmmaking takes over.

As is my yearly tradition, I try to guess which nominee will walk home with the Oscar this Sunday night. Am I dead on or dead wrong? Let me know.



Best Motion Picture of the Year:
Brokeback Mountain
Capote
Crash
Good Night, and Good Luck
Munich

Brokeback Mountain won the Golden Globe and the Producer's Guild award. This should be a great indicator of its chances, but in all honesty, it didn't help The Aviator last year. While Brokeback fatigue is always a factor, Crash alone seems to have the chops to stops this juggernaut's momentum. People are passionate about Crash, while the majority of people I've spoken to merely respect Brokeback. Crash is the "little movie that could" pull an upset—and it just may. It's happened before. Remember a little film called Shakespeare in Love that beat shoe-in Saving Private Ryan?! If Brokeback does lose, it will be one of the biggest upsets in Oscar history...and one of the most deserved.

Will Win: Brokeback Mountain
Should Win: Crash



Best Achievement in Directing:
George Clooney for Good Night, and Good Luck
Paul Haggis for Crash
Ang Lee for Brokeback Mountain
Bennett Miller for Capote
Steven Spielberg for Munich

Who will win for Best Director? Look no further than the Director's Guild of America Award. The director who wins it almost always goes on to win the Oscar. This year it was Ang Lee. Even if Crash wins Best Picture, the venerable Lee, upon whom voters have wanted to bestow an Oscar for years, will still take home the statuette. Spielberg already has several and Crash's Haggis and Capote's Miller are simply too new and otherwise, untested. Clooney is an even bigger long-shot, even though Good Night, and Good Luck has won genuine admiration for its muscular, incisive message and its distinctive black-and-white style.

Will Win: Ang Lee
Should Win: Ang Lee



Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role:
Philip Seymour Hoffman for Capote
Terrence Howard for Hustle and Flow
Heath Ledger for Brokeback Mountain
Joaquin Phoenix for Walk the Line
David Strathairn for Good Night, and Good Luck

Forget the fact that Philip Seymour Hoffman won a Golden Globe and Screen Actors Guild award for his role in Capote. If you want to know why he's going to win an Oscar, just watch the movie. You can't take your eyes off him. Or your ears. No one will be able to touch him on Oscar night—not Heath Ledger and the Brokeback tidal wave, nor David Strathairn and his legitimately brilliant roll in Good Night, and Good Luck, nor Terrence Howard in his extraordinary role as a pimp turned rap star in Hussle and Flow. Hoffman has never won, despite being well-liked and highly admired among his peers. That all changes Sunday night. My only question--where is the perpetually underrated Jeff Daniels for his lacerating performance in The Squid and the Whale?

Will Win: Philip Seymour Hoffman
Should Win: Philip Seymour Hoffman



Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role:
Judi Dench for Mrs. Henderson Presents
Felicity Huffman for Transamerica
Keira Knightley for Pride & Prejudice
Charlize Theron for North Country
Reese Witherspoon for Walk the Line

This category is the closest of them all and perhaps the toughest to call. The only two who have any chance of winning are Huffman and Witherspoon, but it's honestly a huge toss up between them. Both won their respective best actress Golden Globes. Though I wouldn't completely rule out Felicity Huffman, I think Reese Witherspoon's touching, funny and convincing portrayal of June Carter Cash will pull it off for Walk the Line's only win of the night.

Will Win: Reese Witherspoon
Should Win: Reese Witherspoon



Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role:
George Clooney for Syriana
Matt Dillion for Crash
Paul Giamatti for Cinderella Man
Jake Gyllenhaal for Brokeback Mountain
William Hurt for A History of Violence

Originally I thought that Paul Giamatti would finally win for his role in Cinderella Man. Not because that particular performance was phenomenal, but because the superb and oft-spurned Giamatti was going to be rewarded for his thus-far ignored work. However, now I think that the role in Cinderella Man will fall prey to the same fate as his other nominations. Hollywood golden boy and Cary Grant-mantle-wearing George Clooney will take home that honor, a reward not only for his excellent role in Syriana but a nod for his direction of Good Night, and Good Luck.

Will Win: Paul Giamatti
Should Win: Matt Dillon



Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role:
Amy Adams for Junebug
Catherine Keener for Capote
Frances McDormand for North Country
Rachel Weisz for The Constant Gardener
Michelle Williams for Brokeback Mountain

Traditionally, the supporting actress category is a wild-card, dark-horse category, which might be just perfect for Amy Adams who was nothing short of wondrous in Junebug. However, have enough voters seen it? Some say Rachel Weisz is a shoe-in and her work was indeed superb. So was Michelle Williams for that matter. While I still hope that Adams will take it in the end because her vibrancy, comic timing, and authenticity will stand out in voters' minds, I sense a slide in Weisz’ only slightly less deserving direction.

Will Win: Rachel Weisz
Should Win: Amy Adams


Best Writing, Screenplay Written Directly for the Screen:
Crash
Good Night, and Good Luck
Match Point
The Squid and the Whale
Syriana

Stephen Gaghan's Syriana tells a story of nausiating (if intentionally muddled) complexity; Woody Allen's words in Match Point is a ruthless skeleton of language; Noah Baumbach's The Squid and the Whale has a heartfelt yet sooty insight; and George Clooney and Grant Heslov's Good Night, and Good Luck resonates with fire--but I doubt any of them have a chance. Take 20 lead characters, mix them together in a seemingly unrelated series of complex and affecting events, and juggle them all with a deft intelligence and you have Paul Haggis and Bobby Moresco's screenplay for Crash. It will win.

Will Win: Crash
Should Win: Crash


Best Writing, Screenplay Based on Material Previously Produced or Published:
Brokeback Mountain
Capote
The Constant Gardener
A History of Violence
Munich

For taking Annie Proulx's sparse short story and giving it flesh, muscle, blood and the heart that pumps it--the screenplay for Brokeback Mountain will win.

Will Win: Brokeback Mountain
Should Win: Brokeback Mountain


Best Achievement in Cinematography:
Batman Begins
Brokeback Mountain
Good Night, and Good Luck
Memoirs of a Geisha
The New World

This was a superb year for cinematography. While Batman’s surprise nomination is negated by its gloomy tones and Geisha for its over-the-top esthetics, the remaining three are all incredibly worthy. Good Night, and Good Luck, with its sumptuous black and white shot through a cancerous cloud of cigarette smoke is pristine, elegant, luxurious. The New World dwells on nature like a lover consuming his beloved with his eyes. And Brokeback Mountain sweeps over vaulted vistas like God’s own creative hand. I wish I could say that The New World or Good Night would take it, but I have a feeling this one will go to Brokeback. Still, that is hardly reason to complain.

Will Win: Brokeback Mountain
Should Win: The New World or Good Night, and Good Luck


Best Achievement in Editing:
Cinderella Man
The Constant Gardener
Crash
Munich
Walk the Line

All five nominees are intensely deserving. Cinderella Man cuts some of the best fight scenes since Raging Bull. Munich takes a stomach-turning page from Hitchcock’s knife. Walk the Line is deliberate and lyrical. The Constant Gardener moves like a wild zephyr. But Crash, jugging multiple storylines and interweaving them into a shattering tapestry should take the statuette.

Will Win: Crash
Should Win: Crash


Best Achievement in Art Direction:
Good Night, and Good Luck
Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire
King Kong
Memoirs of a Geisha
Pride & Prejudice

Oddly enough, the very thing that will win this category for Memoirs of a Geisha is the very reason it was not a better film (nor an Oscar contender for Best Picture for that matter). Geisha’s art direction has all the subtlety of the Las Vegas strip instead of the intimacy that the book demands. It makes for a lesser film but a delicious plate of eye candy.

Will Win: Memoirs of a Geisha
Should Win: Memoirs of a Geisha


Best Achievement in Costume Design:
Charlie and the Chocolate Factory
Memoirs of a Geisha
Mrs. Henderson Presents
Pride & Prejudice
Walk the Line

All of the nominees are strong—some understated like Walk the Line and Pride & Prejudice while others are exuberant like Charlie and the Chocolate Factory and Mrs. Henderson Presents. But Memoirs of a Geisha should walk away with this one, easily. The overwhelming ornate richness of the film’s kimono-clad cast will be too much for any other film to beat.

Will Win: Memoirs of a Geisha
Should Win: Memoirs of a Geisha


Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Score:
Brokeback Mountain - Gustavo Santaolalla
The Constant Gardener - Alberto Iglesias
Memoirs of a Geisha - John Williams
Munich - John Williams
Pride & Prejudice - Dario Marianelli

This is easily one of my favorite categories to which my collection of hundreds of film scores attest. There are some beautiful scores this year, though, for me, only one stands out above all the rest. And it won’t win. Pride and Prejudice is a luminescent score, more at home in the classical recital hall than in a modern movie. Yet, for all its beauty, it will not be able to stand up to Brokeback Mountain (a lush and intoxicating theme, but not overall score) or the double-tap of John Williams, here with his 44th and 45th nominations!--Munich is powerful in the same haunting way that Schindler’s List was, but Memoirs of a Geisha is the score to beat. The Constant Gardener is too ethno-centric to seriously compete.

Will Win: Memoirs of a Geisha
Should Win: Pride & Prejudice


Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Song:
Hustle & Flow for "It's Hard Out Here For a Pimp"
Crash for "In the Deep"
Transamerica for "Travelin' Thru"

I'm not even going to predict this one. It's a silly category. This isn't Broadway, or, like it or not, the musical-rich Hollywood of 60 years ago. Why don't they remove this category and add something relevant like Best Stunts? Ok, ok, I’ll say Transamerica's "Travelin Thru" if you put a gun to my head. That said, I dare you to see Hustle and Flow and not get “It’s Hard Out Here For a Pimp” stuck in your head for days!


Best Achievement in Makeup:
The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe
Cinderella Man
Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith

The fact that George Lucas concluded his sextology (that’s the numeric-designation, not a porno rip off of the sci-fi series) and only gets nominated for Best Makeup says something, I think, about the quality of his most recent films. And he won’t even get this one. Narnia, with its cornucopia of mythical beasts will steal this right out from under Sith’s feet. Russel Crowe with blood pouring out of his nose is KO’ed from the first round.

Will Win: The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe
Should Win: The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe


Behold, the most confounding categories at the Academy Awards! What is the difference between sound achievement and sound editing? Sound achievement is the recording and use of specific diagetic sounds within a film while sound editing is how all those individual sounds are merged into a single, unified soundtrack. Understand now? Yeah, I’m not sure if I do either.


Best Achievement in Sound:
The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe
King Kong
Memoirs of a Geisha
War of the Worlds
Walk the Line

This is a tough one. On the one hand, I’m tempted to say Walk the Line because of its brilliant interpretation of Jonny Cash’s music. Ray, a similarly musically-driven film won in this category last year. But this year, the man in black is up against some stiff competition including an ape that smashes his way through New York City, a world of magical creatures and an attack on earth by fearsome aliens. I’m leaning with War of the Worlds. I may not have liked the movie, but it had one hell of a good sound palate. The fog horn-like roar the tri-pods let loose right before they attacked is still enough to stop me in my tracks.

Will Win: War of the Worlds
Should Win: War of the Worlds


Best Achievement in Sound Editing:
King Kong
Memoirs of a Geisha
War of the Worlds

This one comes down to the ape vs. the aliens. And for overall aural cohesion I think Kong takes it.

Will Win: King Kong
Should Win: King Kong


Best Achievement in Visual Effects:
The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe
King Kong
War of the Worlds

The effects certainly aren’t perfect. And boy do they get carried away to the point of agonizing distraction. But when King Kong works they are both magical and invisible. Thanks to WETA and Gollum alum, Andy Serkis, audiences are immersed in pure, dazzling cinemagic. While Narnia makes a good run with impressive, if sporadically decent effects, and War of the Worlds with frightening, if intermittent effects, no one is going to spank this monkey. The question many may be asking, however, is, where’s Star Wars? Good question.

Will Win: King Kong
Should Win: King Kong


Best Animated Feature Film of the Year:
Corpse Bride
Howl's Moving Castle
Wallace & Gromit in The Curse of the Were-Rabbit

Hayao Miyazaki is perhaps the most respected living animator, but Howl’s Moving Castle isn’t even as good as his magical 2001 release, Spirited Away. While Tim Burton’s Corpse Bride managed to find comedy and compassion in even the most morose of subjects, Wallace & Gromit: the Curse of the Were-Rabbit, a whimsical and eccentric story made with century old technology is sure to win. After the creative team’s consistent victories in the past animated shorts category, it'd be hard to imagine them losing their first time up for a feature.

Will Win: Wallace & Gromit in The Curse of the Were-Rabbit
Should Win: Wallace & Gromit in The Curse of the Were-Rabbit


Best Foreign Language Film of the Year:
Bestia nel cuore, La (Italy)
Joyeux Noël (France)
Paradise Now (Palestine)
Sophie Scholl - Die letzten Tage (Germany)
Tsotsi (South Africa)

I haven’t seen enough of these films to choose my favorite (many are still pending for general release), though I cannot imagine there being a better one than Paradise Now. The film about Palestinian bombers is controversial and eye-opening, the perfect foil for Spielberg’s Munich. The only other film in this category to get anywhere near as much buzz is South Africa’s Tsotsi, a film about the reforming power of love on the criminal heart. It will come down between these two and Tsotsi just might be palatable enough to squeamish voters to win.

Will Win: Tsotsi
Should Win: Paradise Now


Best Documentary, Features:
Darwin's Nightmare
Enron: The Smartest Guys in the Room
March oof the Peguines
Murderball
Street Fight

Of all the nominees, March of the Penguins is the presumed winner, not only because of its record-breaking box office performance (it made more money than all of the five Best Picture nominees combined!) but because people flocked (pun intended) to see it. Just ten years ago, no one in the general public was able to take in films in this category. Now, documentaries constitute big bucks and big business. This influx may explain why far-and-away favorite, Werner Herzog's Grizzly Man, a confounding portrait of a man who was devoured by that which he loved most, was not even included. That or the documentary committee is asleep at the wheel. As far as the nominees go, don't rule out Murderball, the story of full-contact quadriplegic wheelchair rugby players. If enough voters have seen it, Murderball has a good chance.

Will Win: March of the Penguins
Should Win: Haven't seen enough of the nominees to make a decision


Best Documentary, Short Subjects:
God Sleeps in Rwanda
A Note of Triumph: The Golden Age of Norman Corwin
The Death of Kevin Carter
The Mushroom Club

Of all the short categories, this was the most difficult to judge. The Death of Kevin Carter, the story of a photojournalist so haunted by the world he has seen through the lens of his camera that he commits suicide is powerful and just may take it. God Sleeps in Rwanda is its stiffest competition, the story of the aftermath of that county’s genocide and the resulting 70-30% split between women and men. The Mushroom Club, about modern Hiroshima and those whose lives were forever changed by the bomb, is a dark horse. Here, the slickest produced documentary about the life of early radio personality Norman Corwin, may be “too good” to win.

Will Win: The Death of Kevin Carter
Should Win: The Death of Kevin Carter

Best Short Film, Animated:
Badgered
The Moon and the Son
The Mysterious Geographic Explorations of Jasper Morello
9
One Man Band

I had the chance to check out 9 at the Telluride Film Festival. It's a story that takes place in a nightmarish landscape, where a hunted figure confronts an insect-like creature that is stealing the souls of its brethren. Very creative and evocative. My favorite was The Mysterious Geographic Explorations of Jasper Morello, the story of an airship navigator, a plague which is ravishing his world and its cure found in the most unlikely and deadly of sources, is breathtaking and wonderfully creative. The Moon and the Son is nowhere near as nicely animated, though its sentimental and gut-wrenchingly serious storyline may give it an edge. The competition is so good that Pixar’s entry, One Man Band, usually the hands-down favorite, will lose this year.

Will Win: 9
Should Win: The Mysterious Geographic Explorations of Jasper Morello

Best Short Film, Live Action:
The Runaway
Cashback
The Last Farm
Our Time Is Up
Six Shooter

Our Time is Up, starring the ever-wonderful Kevin Pollak as a dying shrink who finally gets to tell his patients everything he’s always wanted to say, is very funny. Six Shooter with the prolific Brendan Gleeson as a man having one hell of a bad day is the sort of unapologetic black comedy Quentin Tarantino would make if he were Irish. The Runaway is both sweet and creepy in a Sixth Sense sort of way. Cashback is about the absurd, juvenile and erotic ways in which late-night British supermarket clerks pass the time. But my favorite was the Scandinavian, Bergmanesque story of an elderly man’s final days, The Last Farm. Only one other question--where, oh where, is Rain is Falling?

Will Win: Our Time is Up
Should Win: The Last Farm