Predictions

It’s only a matter of hours now, and even Karl Rove is predicting an Obama blowout.

The polls taken the day before the election are always the most accurate, and nearly every single poll is in agreement — Obama has the majority of the vote. Of the 30 most respected polls, 25 give it to Obama, four to McCain, and one predicts a tie. Over-sampling of Democrats, to what degree it has occurred, is offset by the hundreds of thousands the party has newly registered. The youth vote, historically fickle and unreliable, should be the highest in decades, if not since they began tracking such statistics.

Democratic turnout may traditionally be low, but again, this is not a traditional election. The same tens of thousands who show up at Obama rallies will turn out to vote. There are reports of massive voter turnout even in states that “don’t matter,” like New York and California. In D.C., cobalt blue, my line this morning wrapped around the block a good half hour before the doors even opened. If the turnout is good even in states in which a Democratic win is a foregone conclusion, how much greater will in be in the battleground states? In Virginia, where I work, people have been in line since 4:00 am.

This election isn't like all other elections in modern history. The old rules may no longer be in effect after tonight. It is looking like Obama will be remaking the map. Why else would both candidates have spent the last week exclusively in red states? Obama is making unheard of inroads and McCain is losing decades-long stalwarts. If this is true, the old mantras of "no candidate has ever won without X state" may fall away, or at least be realigned.

My prediction is Obama 367-378, McCain 160-171 (to account for Indiana’s recent fluctuations). Either way, it is an Obama victory.

McCain simply has too high, far and steep a mountain to climb. He has to do better than great today, he has to be perfect. And that is next to impossible for any candidate. Yes, there are scenarios in which he could win, but they would be Hail Marys of such staggering complexity that very, very few people think they actually have a chance succeeding.

This election will be over with the East Coast. The rest of the Midwest, West and West Coast will simply be cruise control. Though the different states’ polls close at different times, Obama’s victory will be clear when he ekes out a win in Florida, and solidly pulls both Virginia and Pennsylvania, McCain’s last, best hopes.

Of the swing states, the Democrats will take Colorado (which has been trending blue with every election for the past several years), as will other Western states once thought a lock for the Republicans — New Mexico and Nevada. New Hampshire will stay blue.

McCain will keep Georgia, but not by much.

Ohio, North Carolina and Missouri remain toss-ups, though all may trend Obama in the end. Even if McCain wins them, he still loses.

All of this presidential discussion ignores the congressional races, which, any and all asked predict landslide Democratic victories. Not one Democratic incumbent is in danger. Not one Republican incumbent is safe. Those are the facts, not hyperbole. The presidential race may be a bloodbath, but the congressional race is certain to be one.

Obama is both very good and very lucky. He is riding the wave of a movement, not simply a political stampede. His organizing and ground game is second to none in campaigning history. And in many people’s minds, he is running not against McCain, but against President Bush and Republican policies in general, policies many regard as cataclysmic in every way possible. Sarah Palin has done incalculable damage to the Republicans. Her implosion coincided with the financial meltdown, an automatic boon for Obama. The collapse of the financial markets just a month before the election, under a Republican administration already despised and saddled with one of the lowest approval ratings in history, is fallout from which McCain has not and will not be able to recover.