Tuesday, November 04, 2008

Predictions














It’s only a matter of hours now, and even Karl Rove is predicting an Obama blowout.

The polls taken the day before the election are always the most accurate, and nearly every single poll is in agreement — Obama has the majority of the vote. Of the 30 most respected polls, 25 give it to Obama, four to McCain, and one predicts a tie. Over-sampling of Democrats, to what degree it has occurred, is offset by the hundreds of thousands the party has newly registered. The youth vote, historically fickle and unreliable, should be the highest in decades, if not since they began tracking such statistics.

Democratic turnout may traditionally be low, but again, this is not a traditional election. The same tens of thousands who show up at Obama rallies will turn out to vote. There are reports of massive voter turnout even in states that “don’t matter,” like New York and California. In D.C., cobalt blue, my line this morning wrapped around the block a good half hour before the doors even opened. If the turnout is good even in states in which a Democratic win is a foregone conclusion, how much greater will in be in the battleground states? In Virginia, where I work, people have been in line since 4:00 am.

This election isn't like all other elections in modern history. The old rules may no longer be in effect after tonight. It is looking like Obama will be remaking the map. Why else would both candidates have spent the last week exclusively in red states? Obama is making unheard of inroads and McCain is losing decades-long stalwarts. If this is true, the old mantras of "no candidate has ever won without X state" may fall away, or at least be realigned.

My prediction is Obama 367-378, McCain 160-171 (to account for Indiana’s recent fluctuations). Either way, it is an Obama victory.

McCain simply has too high, far and steep a mountain to climb. He has to do better than great today, he has to be perfect. And that is next to impossible for any candidate. Yes, there are scenarios in which he could win, but they would be Hail Marys of such staggering complexity that very, very few people think they actually have a chance succeeding.

This election will be over with the East Coast. The rest of the Midwest, West and West Coast will simply be cruise control. Though the different states’ polls close at different times, Obama’s victory will be clear when he ekes out a win in Florida, and solidly pulls both Virginia and Pennsylvania, McCain’s last, best hopes.

Of the swing states, the Democrats will take Colorado (which has been trending blue with every election for the past several years), as will other Western states once thought a lock for the Republicans — New Mexico and Nevada. New Hampshire will stay blue.

McCain will keep Georgia, but not by much.

Ohio, North Carolina and Missouri remain toss-ups, though all may trend Obama in the end. Even if McCain wins them, he still loses.

All of this presidential discussion ignores the congressional races, which, any and all asked predict landslide Democratic victories. Not one Democratic incumbent is in danger. Not one Republican incumbent is safe. Those are the facts, not hyperbole. The presidential race may be a bloodbath, but the congressional race is certain to be one.

Obama is both very good and very lucky. He is riding the wave of a movement, not simply a political stampede. His organizing and ground game is second to none in campaigning history. And in many people’s minds, he is running not against McCain, but against President Bush and Republican policies in general, policies many regard as cataclysmic in every way possible. Sarah Palin has done incalculable damage to the Republicans. Her implosion coincided with the financial meltdown, an automatic boon for Obama. The collapse of the financial markets just a month before the election, under a Republican administration already despised and saddled with one of the lowest approval ratings in history, is fallout from which McCain has not and will not be able to recover.

19 Comments:

Blogger Grinth said...

I wish I could share your unbridled optimism.

Right now, I would say I'm cautiously optimistic.

12:44 PM  
Blogger Brandon said...

Don't get me wrong, I am not predicting a landslide, just a solid win.

From NBC’s always astute Chuck Todd--A viewers guide to tonight:

Finally -- Election Day. And perhaps the best way to gauge how McCain and Obama are faring is by following the poll closing times for key states. The first closing times come at 7:00 pm ET for Georgia, Indiana, South Carolina, and Virginia. In particular, if Virginia is called early for Obama, that will be a sign of a possible big night for the Democrats. But if there isn’t an early call, that could be some welcome news for McCain. While Georgia and South Carolina aren’t considered true battleground states, they could also signal how the night is going; in short, these are the landslide indicators: If they’re too close too call early in the night, that will tell us that African-American turnout was HUGE.
In addition, Kentucky’s polls close at 7:00 pm ET, and that will give us some early insight into Mitch McConnell’s political health and whether Democrats might have what it takes to reach 60 Senate seats. (Note: Polls actually close in the Eastern Time Zone parts of Indiana and Kentucky at 6:00 pm ET, but the races won’t be called until 7:00 pm, when polls close the Central Time Zone in those states. However, we will see returns start coming in at 6:00 pm.)
*** From 7:30 to 1:00 a.m.: The next batch of poll closings comes at 7:30 pm ET, for North Carolina, Ohio, and West Virginia. At 8:00 pm ET, polls officially close in Florida (although for most of the state, it’s actually 7:00 pm ET), Missouri, New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania. If Pennsylvania is called early for Obama, that would be a severe blow to McCain and would force him to hang on to virtually every state that Bush carried in 2004. But keep an eye on the four states of Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia. If Obama wins just two out of the four, it becomes nearly impossible for McCain to get to 270 -- even if he wins Pennsylvania. And if Virginia is called for Obama, then it's down to the Iron Triangle of survival for McCain: Florida, North Carolina, and Ohio. Add any one of those three to Virginia and it's basically checkmate. So McCain has to win three of those four state. At 9:00 pm ET, polls close in the Western battlegrounds of Colorado and New Mexico. At 10:00 pm ET, polls close for Iowa, Montana, and Nevada. At 11:00 pm ET, polls close in California, and this is important if the night is going especially well for Obama: Because of its 55 electoral votes, probably the earliest that we might see the election called for Obama (i.e., him going crossing the 270 mark) would be at 11:00 pm ET. The last state to close its polls will be Alaska at 1:00 am ET, and that will be a time to check on the status of Ted Stevens’ re-election bid. By the way, consider the following: Even in victory, it's possible McCain underperforms Bush in every single state in the Union.

12:53 PM  
Blogger Matt said...

He may win... But these comparisons of yours and others to his greatness and equality with Kennedy are ludicrous. He isn't half the man Kennedy was. He wouldn't have the balls to stand up to Russia in something similar to the Cuban Missile Crisis. His VP is such a spineless sissy that he didn't even vote for entering the 1st Gulf War.

At least we knew some of the spiritual beliefs of Kennedy, along with many of his personal shortcomings and his own ties to questionable people (that may have partially caused him to end up 6 feet under). What we know about Obama is vague at best, being a congregrant of a virile racist the last 20 years in a universalist Church of Christ (I'll bet in January there'll be a guest room for him in the White House - oh wait they aren't friends anymore :). For those of you that don't know about universalism, that means he thinks all roads/ religions lead to God. So it might be true that he's not a solid muslim, but he's surely not a traditional Christian. Many of you say so what... I think it matters when we are talking about the possible new leader of the former greatest Christian-minded (foundationally) country on the planet.

http://www.traditionalvalues.org/modules.php?sid=3221

http://www.traditionalvalues.org/modules.php?sid=3375

Some people say that the US could be judged by God for allowing this man to lead it down the paths that he surely will (i.e. government funded abortions - reversing the Hyde amendment and pandering to the Godless nations of the UN). I personally believe that he and the paths he will take the country down are the judgment, and maybe this country needs to go through it before they come to their senses and start demanding some integrity and values of their leaders and of this society as a whole again (or maybe it is the endtimes).

I am saying this today, because I am sure that if this man wins tonight then tomorrow I will hear "Ok, now be quiet" (the un-informed majority has spoken). Let's sit back and wait and see who was right.

I pray that either McCain wins or that I am wrong about this man, we'll see what happens.

This list of financial donors really concerns me though.

http://spectator.org/archives/2008/10/02/obamas-fishy-200-million

2:16 PM  
Blogger Grinth said...

I was about to sincerely respond to this when I realized that this wasn't Matt(POD) but Matt "I give Republicans a bad name".

Now we just need a left wing crazy spouting theories about 9/11 being orchestrated by Bush and Cheney and how if McCain is elected Palin's first action as VP will be to force all American's to convert to evangelical christianity or lose their citizenship......

THEN the circle will be complete.

3:14 PM  
Blogger nathan said...

A Kennedy conspiracy theorist! Well, that fits.

Keep worrying yourself about Obama's spiritual state. Your fear of "Godless UN countries" tells me enough. That and your use of the phrase "spineless sissy" in the context of foreign policy.


Question: Why do you think it even matters to anyone except yourself and others who are already like-minded whenever you link as a source to a partisan dot org? What is up with that? That carries some sort of weight? Do you see me posting links to the Huffington fucking post?

3:22 PM  
Blogger Matt said...

Oh, you got me...

I've tried to find the truth on other sources, like the LA Times - but wait they don't release negative stories about the Obama-siah (until after the election). For instance stories/ videos/ audio about him meeting with such great thinkers like Palestinian terrorist sympathizers.

I'll just let you post comments/ web links to "neutral" agencies like CNN (communist news network) and other "great gnostic" new sources...

Bring on the "Fairness Doctrine", then we'll all be able to hear the fair/ balanced truth, right? lmao

You're all for censorship of people you don't agree with that make you feel convicted in some area or about your personal choices/ lack of accountability.

3:36 PM  
Blogger Brandon said...

Wow. Matt, in fairness to you, I'd recommend quitting while you’re ahead...well, not so much ahead, but...well, you get my drift. I fear your retaliations fit perfectly into the proverb, “better to close your mouth and be thought a fool, than to open it and erase any doubt.”

3:42 PM  
Blogger Matt said...

Before you yourself fully embraced gnosticism, you probably believed the following words from the Bible.

New American Standard Bible (©1995)
"But a natural man does not accept the things of the Spirit of God, for they are foolishness to him; and he cannot understand them, because they are spiritually appraised."

Truth, honesty, integrity, hard work, accountability and the preservation of them are sometimes not very popular ideas but they are what has made America the greatest nation on the earth. I personally don't want to see that end. I believe those that those traits should be rewarded and not penalized. (for example national healthcare - right now only certain socio-economic groups have to wait in line for healthcare, if we follow the European model all of us will get to wait in line, No Thank You !!) All children are and should be taken care of currently, I am just not for taking care of their parents, if they don't want to help themselves.

Someone told me just today (who has an education and a decent job/ a single mother and a teacher - and voted for Obama) that she may decide to just quit working and go on welfare to stay home and watch her child, it'd be easier and she'd make almost as much money. That is what I am against, a system that makes that mentality a possibility. A system that Obama wants to make even more prevalent. I am 100% against this entitlement mentality and don't want my life to be affected by it more than it already is. (along with the many moral issues that he is absolutely wrong on and the Supreme Court justices he will place that will interpret those laws wrongly in the future)

4:14 PM  
Blogger Jon C. Fibbs said...

Oh for crying out loud Matt! I am so tired of this! Matt, I wouldn't care if he were a devote Muslim! I wouldn't care if he were an avowed satanist with nothing but contempt for Christians! That's not the issue! This IS NOT a Christian nation! It may have been founded by Christians, but it is NOT a Christian nation!

He can pray to earth worms or to the earth spirit Gia for all I care, what matters are the stances he takes on proposals and his policies! And to prove to you that's what matters, answers me this? If a Republican candidate was running for president and was against abortion, against taxes, for smaller government, and agreed with you on ever issue - but was a Muslim, you'd still vote for them over a Democrat with traditionally held liberal views. Guaranteed.

Stop this. It's pathetic. Which way would a true patriot part his hair Matt?

Oh, and I don't like Obama either. The difference is my reasons for disliking him are substantive, whereas yours are the mental equivalent of belly button lint.

Grinth, I believe the some within the US government played some part in the events of 9/11 if only to look the other way for purposes of policy implementation and financial gain. Your circle is complete.

8:21 PM  
Blogger Matt said...

Which is what is wrong with this country...

You and too many others don't see a future for yourself (you don't seem to have or don't care about any values or see any absolutes) and don't know or care about the spiritual battles that are going on this world. So all you care about is the here and the now and who sends "a tingle up your leg" at the moment.

He's the new Babe Ruth, all can he do is make you ooh and ahh. In the end he's only good for entertainment value and shouldn't have been give such high consideration or long time serious review.

We wouldn't have made Babe Ruth president just because he could hit a home run, why would we want this guy to be president just because he eloquently says he's moderate and for the little guy (while living in his mansion that crooks helped him get a good deal on and his kids go to private school).

He's a facade in a liberal dreamworld at best. At the worst, something out of the apocalype.

I am amazed at how all of you darn liberals go on an on about protecting the poor and down trodden and abused animals and trees, but yet you put no value on human life or protecting justice and freedoms. What is wrong with you?????

9:20 PM  
Blogger Jon C. Fibbs said...

Matt, Matt, Matt. You make to many assumptions my friend. 1. I am not a liberal. Ask Brandon. 2. You wouldn't know an absolute principle if it hit you in your head. Killing innocent children in wrong, as long as they're American, if they're Iraqi, Lebanese, etc, to hell with them. You gotta break a few eggs, right? In the name of U.S. Christian values and with the blessing of God. You're gonna make me mad Matt, and neither you nor I nor Brandon want that. You're not worth the three page diatribe I would write against your ignorant beliefs.

9:57 PM  
Blogger Grinth said...

I for one would actually like to see the three page diatribe. I think there would be some great stuff in it.

But Jon, to clarify, turning a blind eye is entirely different than believing Bush and co. orchestrated the whole thing for their own personal gain.

You'll have to try harder =)

11:05 PM  
Blogger Brandon said...

It's over. Done. No more commentary. Obama IS the 44th President of the United States!

11:13 PM  
Blogger Jon C. Fibbs said...

Hell no it's not over, he still has to break the 6% spread that I have for him, otherwise I'm out some money!

11:17 PM  
Anonymous Matthew Delahunt (POD) said...

Well, my team didn't win the Super Bowl this year and my candidate didn't win either... at least I have a U2 tour to look forward to and plan on for next year! Germany here I come!

I am so glad the election is over - time to mend some friendships and look forward to the future.

Life goes on...

11:29 PM  
Blogger Brandon said...

Matt, you and I have nothing to mend. We may disagree on some things but you are a kindred soul above no other!

11:35 PM  
Blogger Matt said...

Yes, now we'll wait and see...

It's too bad that McCain waited to give his best speech of the last 2 years in his exit speech.

The good news is that there are still enough Republicans left in the Senate to do a filibuster, if need be, to block the most liberal/ wacky stuff that might come from the Pelosi/ Reed camp.

I hope Brandon that your good will and hope isn't misplaced on this person. We'll wait and see...

11:37 PM  
Anonymous Matthew Delahunt (POD) said...

Thanks for the comment Brandon - you are definitely a fellow kindred soul and friend of mine that has no peer. We definitely have things to talk about when I get closer to getting out of the Navy.

I hope that you enjoy the celebrations and festivities in DC and look forward to you updates... (plus I am dying to know what you thought of QOS).

12:36 AM  
Blogger nathan said...

All this healing is beautiful...

I'm still pondering being accused of "censorship."

Link to whatever you want, Matt! Whether I take said links - or you - seriously, is another matter.

(No wonder so many right-wingers are the first to throw out the First Amendment. I think many of them just don't understand what it means, on a basic level.)

11:04 AM  

Post a Comment

<< Home

Ut In Omnibus Glorificetur Deus